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The Yomiuri Shimbun (Sep. 19, 2010)
New Cabinet must tackle economy first
菅改造内閣　まず景気回復に全力を挙げよ（9月18日付・読売社説）

Prime Minister Naoto Kan's reshuffled Cabinet was launched Friday.
　菅改造内閣が１７日、発足した。

Kan retained five Cabinet members, including Yoshito Sengoku in the central post of chief cabinet secretary and Yoshihiko Noda, who emphasizes fiscal reconstruction, as finance minister. However, the prime minister made new appointments for the 12 other posts, including those of health, labor and welfare minister and economy, trade and industry minister.
　内閣の要である仙谷由人官房長官、財政再建重視の野田佳彦財務相ら５閣僚を留任させる一方、厚生労働相や経済産業相など１２ポストは新たに選任した。

With this major shift in its lineup, the new Cabinet must boldly tackle a number of domestic and diplomatic issues. 　内閣の陣容を大幅に入れ替えたのを機に、内政・外交の諸課題の解決に、果断に取り組まなければならない。

First and foremost should be measures to address the rising yen and the flagging economy.
　真っ先に対応すべきは円高・景気対策である。

As a result of monetary authorities recently making their first market intervention in 6-1/2 years, the sharp appreciation of the yen has been stemmed for the time being. But there should be no optimism about what is to come.
　６年半ぶりの為替介入で円高の流れにひとまず歯止めがかかっているが、予断は許さない。

Finance Minister Noda must make the utmost effort, in close cooperation with the Bank of Japan, to prevent appreciation in the yen's value.
野田財務相は、日銀と緊密に連携し、円高阻止に全力を挙げてほしい。

===

Put growth strategy on track
　◆成長戦略を軌道に◆

Kan intends to craft a supplementary budget for this fiscal year that includes additional stimulus measures. Given the uncertain economic outlook, this is a reasonable decision.
　菅首相は、追加の経済対策を盛り込んだ今年度補正予算を編成する意向だ。景気の先行き不安を考えれば妥当な判断である。

It also is essential to have a growth strategy to invigorate private companies and increase their international competitiveness. Cabinet ministers in charge of economic affairs must exercise leadership so the government-launched Council on the Realization of the New Growth Strategy can fully function.
　企業の活力を引き出し、国際競争力を高める成長戦略も大事だ。先に政府が発足させた「新成長戦略実現会議」が十分に機能するよう、関係の経済閣僚は、指導力を発揮しなければならない。

Budget requests made by ministries for the next fiscal year total more than 96 trillion yen, far exceeding this fiscal year's budget. The state's finances are tight, so the budget requests must be reduced. But if that causes the economy to cool down further, the loss to the nation would be even greater.
　来年度予算編成に向けた各府省の要求総額は９６兆円超と、今年度予算額を大きく上回っている。財政事情は厳しく、要求の絞り込みが課題となるが、景気を冷え込ませては元も子もない。

Regional economies are in dire straits. Funding should be increased for projects that could stimulate the economy and create new jobs. It is important to employ a selective, focused strategy in budget compilation.
　地方の経済は疲弊している。景気を刺激し、新たな雇用創出が期待できる事業には、むしろ予算を増やす「選択と集中」が大切だ。

It is the handout policy measures included in the Democratic Party of Japan's manifesto for last year's House of Representatives election that must be drastically revised. Little economic benefit can be expected from such measures as child-rearing allowances and toll-free expressways.
　経済効果が期待できない子ども手当や高速道路無料化など、衆院選政権公約によるバラマキ政策こそ大幅に見直すべきだ。

To improve fiscal conditions and secure a stable revenue source for social security spending, raising the consumption tax rate is inevitable.
　財政の健全化と社会保障費の安定財源確保には、消費税率の引き上げが避けて通れない。

Kan has called for suprapartisan discussions on the consumption tax and social security. He needs to urge opposition parties to start such discussions soon.
　菅首相はかねて、消費税問題や社会保障に関する超党派協議を唱えてきた。野党側に働きかけ、早期に協議入りする必要がある。

In the extraordinary Diet session that is expected to be convened in October, it is vital to obtain cooperation from the Liberal Democratic Party and other opposition parties under the divided Diet, where the ruling camp has a majority in the lower house while the opposition camp controls the House of Councillors.
　１０月召集予定の臨時国会は、衆参ねじれ状況の下、自民党など野党の協力が欠かせない。

LDP Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara has been receptive to the idea of suprapartisan talks. But he maintains they will not take place as long as the DPJ continues its handout measures, and has set revision or withdrawal of these pledges as a condition for beginning suprapartisan talks. This is only natural.
　自民党の石原伸晃幹事長は、協議に前向きな姿勢を示している。だが、「民主党がバラマキを続けている限りはだめだ」とし、政権公約の修正・撤回が協議入りの前提としている。当然のことだ。

Kan should bring about suprapartisan talks by drastically reviewing the policy pledges. Doing so also would pave the way for the formation of policy-based partial alliances between ruling and opposition parties.
　菅首相は、政権公約を大胆に見直すことで、超党派協議を実現すべきだ。それが、政策ごとに与野党が協力する部分連合への道を開くことにもなろう。

The post of foreign minister was given to Seiji Maehara, who previously served as land, infrastructure, transport and tourism minister. The previous foreign minister, Katsuya Okada, is now DPJ secretary general.
　党幹事長に転じた岡田克也外相の後任には、前原誠司前国土交通相が横滑りした。

===

National interests key
　◆国益踏まえた外交を◆

Maehara, who is well versed in security affairs, has many personal connections with pro-Japan experts in the United States. He apparently was seen as a good choice to heal the bilateral relations damaged under the administration of former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.
　安全保障通の前原氏は、米国の知日派にも多くの人脈を持つ。鳩山前内閣で亀裂が入った対米関係を改善するうえで適任とみなされての起用だろう。

We expect Maehara to make every possible effort, together with Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa, to realize the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station within Okinawa Prefecture as agreed by the two governments in May.
　留任した北沢俊美防衛相とともに、５月の日米合意に沿って米軍普天間飛行場の移設実現に全力で取り組んでほしい。

China has acted in a high-handed manner following an incident in which a Chinese trawler collided with Japan Coast Guard patrol vessels in waters off the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea earlier this month. Maehara has taken a tough stance on China's military buildup ever since his days as head of the DPJ, and we hope that in relations with China he will assert what needs to be asserted, based on careful consideration of this country's interests.
　尖閣沖漁船衝突事件では、中国は高圧的な姿勢をみせている。前原氏は党代表時代から、中国の軍事力増強について厳しい見方をしてきた。対中外交は、国益をしっかりと踏まえ、主張すべきは主張する姿勢で臨んでもらいたい。

Furthermore, the relationship between the government and political parties must be rebuilt, as must that between politicians and bureaucrats.
　政府と党の関係や「政と官」のあり方についても、立て直しが急務である。

The former Hatoyama Cabinet did not have sufficient communications with key members of the ruling party, and its decision-making process was chaotic as policies were approved and then reversed a number of times.
　鳩山前内閣では、内閣と党の意思疎通を欠き、いったん決まった方針が二転三転するなど、政策決定に乱れが生じていた。

Koichiro Gemba, who doubles as state minister in charge of national policy and chairman of the DPJ's Policy Research Committee, must act as a bridge between the DPJ and the Cabinet.
　国家戦略相を兼務する玄葉光一郎政調会長は、党の政策調査会と内閣との橋渡し役をしっかり務める必要があろう。

Non-lawmaker Yoshihiro Katayama was appointed internal affairs and communications minister. Katayama, a former Home Affairs Ministry bureaucrat, worked to increase administrative transparency when he served as governor of Tottori Prefecture, and as a private-sector member of the Government Revitalization Unit, he has actively called for reform of the civil service.
　非議員ながら総務相に抜擢(ばってき)された、旧自治省出身の片山善博前鳥取県知事は、知事時代に行政の透明化に取り組んだ。政府の行政刷新会議では、公務員改革について積極的に発信している。

Relations between politicians and bureaucrats under the DPJ-led government always have been awkward. If politicians fail to listen to bureaucrats' opinions and advice and discourage their enthusiasm by misconstruing the true meaning of politician-led government affairs, they will end up with a stagnant administration.
　民主党政権における政官関係は絶えずぎくしゃくしてきた。「政治主導」の意味を履き違えて、官僚の進言に耳を貸さなかったり、官僚のやる気をそいだりするのでは、行政の停滞を招く。

All the Cabinet members must be firmly committed to utilizing bureaucrats in ways that bring out the best of the bureaucrats' capabilities.
　改造内閣の各閣僚は、霞が関の官僚たちの能力を最大限引き出すため、官僚を使いこなす姿勢に徹してもらいたい。

===

Intraparty struggle remains
　◆残った党内抗争の火種◆

The reshuffled Cabinet and DPJ leadership do not include anyone from the intraparty group led by former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, who lost to Kan in the recent party presidential election.
　今回の内閣・党役員人事では、首相が党代表の座を争った小沢一郎元代表のグループからは一人も起用されなかった。

Many in the Ozawa group are junior lawmakers. Kan intends to appoint a number of Ozawa group members as senior vice ministers and parliamentary secretaries to establish party unity.
　小沢グループは若手議員が多数を占めている。首相としては、副大臣や政務官に積極的に登用し、挙党態勢を築きたい考えだ。

But Ozawa refused to take the post of DPJ acting president offered by Kan. Ozawa apparently is determined to act as an intraparty opposition force, expecting Kan's administration to get bogged down soon or later.
　ただ、小沢氏は、首相が要請した党代表代行への就任を断った。菅政権がいずれ行き詰まるとみて「党内野党」の立場に徹するつもりなのだろう。

As the seeds of intraparty conflict remain, Kan will have difficulty steering the administration.
　党内抗争の火種を抱え、菅首相は引き続き、厳しい政権運営を迫られることになる。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 18, 2010)
（2010年9月18日01時33分 読売新聞）

Recently, I’m making comments on the postings of President Obama in facebook. I’ve realized reaction on my comments is quicker than that one in Japan. (It is slower in Japan.) I’m satisfied with the reaction, as I think my posting in English is accepted. Around two years ago, my posting for an American discussion forum was hated and rejected, because of lack of vocabulary in English as well as lack of American and European thinking way. Now it seems to me that I’ve already got rid of the difficulty. It is only concerning about English, but English! I’ve got impressed with the reaction made by foreigners. Thank you very much.
(srachai from khonkaen, thailand)

ここのところ毎日facebookでオバマ大統領の投稿にはたいていコメントしています。海外よりの反応は日本より素早いですね。（日本は遅いです）多分私の英語を受け入れてもらったものだと感激しています。２年前にはアメリカ人の経営するディスカッションフォーラムで英語力のなさと欧米の価値観から逸脱した私の投稿は袋叩きにあった経験があります。今では歓迎されるようになっています。たかが英語されど英語。海外よりの励ましはグット胸に迫りました。ありがとうございます。
（スラチャイ記、コンケンの自宅にて）


photo by srachai from OCNフォトフレンド

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Sep. 18, 2010)
Coexistence means fighting cultural frictions
排外主義の台頭　異文化とどう共生していくか（9月17日付・読売社説）

The burqa, an enveloping outer garment, and the niqab, a veil covering the face, are worn by devout Muslim women.
　敬虔(けいけん)なイスラム教徒女性が身に着ける衣装に、顔も体も覆い隠すブルカやニカブがある。

The French legislature has passed a bill banning women from wearing this type of clothing in public places.
これを公共の場で着用するのを禁止する法律が、フランスで成立した。

The law, prepared by the French government, will take effect in six months unless objections are raised by the Constitutional Council, an organ tasked with examining the constitutionality of laws.
　違憲立法審査機関が異議を唱えなければ半年後に施行される。

Protagonists of the burqa-niqab ban have said wearing these garments runs counter to the principle of separation of church and state, and to the emancipation of women.
　禁止の理由は、ブルカが厳格な政教分離や女性解放の理念に反するからだという。

President Nicolas Sarkozy's government has continued to send Roma back to such countries as Romania since summer. His administration is also considering revoking French nationality for immigrants found guilty of committing major crimes.
　法案を準備したサルコジ政権は今夏以来、ルーマニアなどからやって来たロマ人を強制送還しているほか、重罪を犯した移民の国籍剥奪(はくだつ)も検討している。

Sarkozy's strong measures, including his crackdown on Roma communities, are a response to street disturbances by groups of young Roma and immigrants. However, the president continues to be accused of trying to resurrect his slumping popularity through these harsh measures, with a view to being reelected president in 2012.
　ロマ人や移民の若者グループが暴動を起こしたためだが、２０１２年の大統領選を見据えた人気回復策だ、との批判は絶えない。

Violation of EU rules

France's expulsion of Roma, also known as Gypsies, has drawn fire from other European Union nations on the grounds that it violates the rule of freedom of movement within the bloc. However, a majority of French people support the Roma expulsion and burqa ban.
　かつてジプシーと呼ばれたロマ人の追放には、欧州連合（ＥＵ）内でも、ＥＵの基本原則「域内の移動の自由」の侵害だ、と批判が起きている。しかし、仏国民の大半は、追放にもブルカ禁止にも賛成している。

If Sarkozy is merely trying to please the public through his antiforeigner policy, it is a sad commentary on France's national motto of liberty, equality and fraternity.
　そんな世論に迎合した排外政策だとしたら、フランスが掲げる「自由・平等・友愛」の理念が泣くのではないか。

France is not the only country that apparently has become intolerant of immigrants and other minorities.
　移民や少数派に非寛容になったのはフランスだけではない。

The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States have led many Americans and Europeans to view Muslims with fear and suspicion.
　欧米諸国では、９年前の米同時テロ事件で、イスラム教徒を見る目に恐怖と猜疑(さいぎ)心が加わった。

Recent fiscal crises gripping some European countries, combined with a rise in unemployment, have triggered an even stronger antipathy toward immigrants. This is exemplified by ultrarightist parties making major gains in Dutch and Hungarian elections earlier this year after calling for restrictions on Muslim immigrants and a crackdown on Roma.
　欧州では最近の財政危機や失業率の増加で、移民に対する風当たりはさらに強くなった。オランダやハンガリーで今年前半、イスラム教徒排斥やロマ人の取り締まり強化を叫ぶ極右政党が選挙で大躍進したのは、その一例である。

Rise in xenophobia

The anti-burqa movement is also gathering momentum in Belgium and Spain. Italy has also has set its sights on expelling Roma.
　ブルカ禁止の動きはベルギーやスペインでも進む。ロマ人追放にはイタリアも乗り出した。

In early September, a board member of Germany's federal bank was dismissed for repeating racist remarks about Muslim immigrants and Jews. According to a survey, only about 30 percent of Germans thought the banker should be fired.
　ドイツでは、イスラム教徒移民やユダヤ人に対する差別的発言を繰り返した連邦銀行理事が今月初めに解任されたが、解任を支持する声は約３割にとどまった。

The rise in xenophobic sentiment also is noticeable in the United States, a melting pot for immigrants. Divisions have deepened among Americans over a plan to build a mosque and Islamic center near New York's Ground Zero. Several days ago, a Florida pastor opposing the mosque construction plan stirred up an international furor when he vowed to burn copies of the Koran.
　移民大国の米国でも、米同時テロ跡地近くにイスラム教礼拝堂を建設する計画をめぐって、賛成派と反対派の亀裂が深まっている。反対派の牧師がイスラム教の聖典コーランを焼却すると宣言して、世界を騒然とさせた。

The ongoing process of globalization obliges people to live with those who adhere to different religious faiths, manners and customs. Japan is no exception.
　グローバル化が進む今、信仰や習俗の異なる人々との共生は避けて通れない。それは、日本も例外ではない。

The coexistence of different cultures also requires efforts by immigrants and other minorities to assimilate into the communities they live in. A society that accepts such minorities must fight cultural frictions that give rise to antiforeigner sentiments.
　異文化との共生には、移民など少数派が既存社会に溶け込む努力も欠かせない。受け入れる側には文化摩擦の中で起きる排外主義と闘う責任があろう。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 17, 2010)
（2010年9月17日01時34分 読売新聞）

The Yomiuri Shimbun (Sep. 17, 2010)
China shouldn't stir up anti-Japanese sentiment
尖閣沖漁船衝突　中国は「反日」沈静化に努めよ（9月16日付・読売社説）

China has taken a strikingly hard line over Japan's handling of the recent collisions of a Chinese fishing trawler with two Japan Coast Guard patrol vessels off the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
　尖閣諸島沖の中国漁船衝突事件で、中国の強硬姿勢が目立っている。

China has protested five times to Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa over the arrest of the trawler's captain. China also unilaterally canceled talks on a pact covering joint gas field development in the East China Sea and a scheduled visit to Japan by Li Jianguo, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
　中国人船長の逮捕に対し、丹羽宇一郎駐中国大使への中国側の抗議は５度にわたった。東シナ海のガス田共同開発に向けた条約交渉や、全国人民代表大会副委員長の訪日も一方的にとりやめた。

In particular, the summons of Niwa by Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, a deputy prime minister-level official, in the middle of the night on a holiday flies in the face of diplomatic protocol.
　特に、副首相級の戴秉国国務委員が休日の未明に大使を呼び出したのは、外交儀礼的に問題のある対応だ。

China's postponement of the gas field talks, which has no direct link with the ship collisions, is an overreaction. We strongly urge China to exercise self-restraint.
事件と直接関係のないガス田交渉まで絡めることも行き過ぎである。中国には自制した対応を強く求めたい。

Japan in the right

The collisions occurred in Japanese waters off the Senkaku Islands, which are inherently Japanese. It is quite reasonable for Japan to deal with illegal activities in these waters in accordance with domestic law.
　事件が起きた海域は、日本固有の領土である尖閣諸島沖の日本領海内だ。違法行為を日本の国内法で裁くのは当然である。

China is mistaken if it thinks Japan will buckle to China's demands if it plays hardball.
　中国が、強い態度に出れば日本側が折れてくると考えているのなら、それは誤りだ。

Since the 1970s, China has claimed the Senkaku Islands belong to China. It has instilled this belief among its people through "anti-Japanese patriotism" education since the 1990s.
　中国は、１９７０年代から尖閣諸島を中国の領土だと主張し、それを９０年代からの「反日・愛国」教育で国民に浸透させてきた。

If Chinese people get the impression that their government is "weak-kneed," it could ignite simmering public discontent over the country's economic disparities and other ills, which could escalate into anger directed at the Chinese Communist Party leadership.
　尖閣問題で「政府は弱腰」との印象を与えれば、国内経済格差などへの不平や不満に“引火”し、中国国民の矛先が共産党指導部に向けられかねない――。

This fear has apparently driven the Chinese government to take a high-handed stance toward Japan over the collisions. But we think Beijing is barking up the wrong tree.
　そんな懸念もあって、中国政府は今回、日本に高圧的な態度をとっているのだろう。だが、それは明らかに筋が違う話だ。

Online bulletin boards in China have been increasingly used to post extreme messages encouraging retaliatory attacks on Japan. Japanese living in China have been harassed, and small metallic balls were fired at a Japanese school building in Tianjin.
　インターネット上では、日本への報復攻撃を促すなど過激な書き込みが増えている。天津市の日本人学校では、パチンコ玉状の金属球が撃ち込まれるなど、在留邦人への嫌がらせも起き始めた。

Level heads needed

The Japanese government on Monday sent members of the fishing boat crew, except for the captain, back to China, together with the vessel.
　日本政府は１３日、船長以外の船員を帰国させ、漁船も返した。

We hoped China would applaud this attempt by the Japanese government to take some of the sting out of the situation. However, China has proclaimed the crew and vessel were returned "due to the united action taken by the Chinese government and its people." Beijing has used Japan's gesture to earn brownie points with the public.
そうした抑制的な対応を評価するならともかく、中国は「政府と国民の一体行動の成果」と喧伝(けんでん)し、国内世論対策に利用している。

This will only inflame "anti-Japanese" sentiment among Chinese people. We urge the Chinese government to defuse such sentiment and prevent a recurrence of the 2005 "anti-Japanese riots."
　これでは、「反日」世論は過熱するばかりだ。中国は、２００５年の「反日」暴動を再来させることのないよう、国内世論の沈静化に努めるべきだ。

We also hope the Japanese side will continue to keep a level head. That being said, the government must not hesitate to refute inaccurate Chinese media reports, such as the claim that JCG patrol vessels "crashed into the fishing boat from behind."
　日本側は冷静な対応に徹してほしい。ただ、海上保安庁の巡視船が「漁船に追突した」と、中国メディアが事実を曲げて報じていることには反論する必要がある。

The JCG videotaped the fishing boat intentionally colliding with two patrol vessels. However, the JCG has not released the tapes because it might need to submit them as evidence in court should the incident become a criminal case.
　海保は、漁船が故意に衝突させた場面をビデオ撮影している。刑事裁判になれば証拠資料として提出する可能性があるため、公表を控えている。

If it becomes apparent that the captain was at fault, it may soothe public anger in China. Perhaps making the videotape public would be one way to achieve this.
　だが、船長に非があることが明白になれば、中国国内世論を落ち着かせるのに役立とう。ビデオを公開するのも一案ではないか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 16, 2010)
（2010年9月16日01時27分 読売新聞）

こんな無法が許されてよいものだろうか。
これ一発でトヨタとホンダだけで数千億円の利益を計上できるはずだ。
非居住者で年金をたよりにつつましやかに生活している世界中の人々は一瞬にして受給額が数パーセントの減額となる厳しい現実。
なにより欧米への外交的配慮を全く欠いた今回の奇襲攻撃、やがて手痛いしっぺ返しをうけるのは明白だ。
そもそも政府は常々急激な為替変動は健全な経済発展に重大な悪影響を及ぼすと述べていた。これが急激な為替変動でなくてなんであろうか。ひどい話だ。




photo by srachai from OCNフォトフレンド

日本政府日銀の為替介入の効果は一時しのぎにすぎない。円高への加速が多少弱まるだけだ。アジア諸国が日本のまねをして介入の動き。しかしながら円高の真の要因はまったく払拭されていない。今年の末には日本政府の執拗な介入にもかかわらず、80yen/$となる見込み。

Japanese FX Intervention
Wed, Sep 15 2010, 08:53 GMT
by Mitul Kotecha

The Bank of Japan acting on the behest of the Ministry of Finance intervened to weaken the JPY, the first such action since 2004. The intervention came as the USD was under broad based pressure, with the USD index dropping below its 200-day moving average. USD/JPY dropped to a low of around 82.88 before Japan intervened to weaken the JPY. The move follows weeks of verbal intervention by the Japanese authorities and came on the heels of the DPJ leadership election in which Prime Minister Kan retained his leadership.

One thing is for certain that Japanese exporters had become increasingly concerned, pained and vocal about JPY strength at a time when export momentum was waning. However, the move in USD/JPY may simply provide many local corporates with better levels to hedge their exposures.

Time will tell whether the intervention succeeds in engineering a sustainable weakening in the JPY but more likely it will only result in smoothing the drop in USD/JPY over coming months along the lines of what has happened with the SNB interventions in EUR/CHF. As many central banks have seen in the past successful intervention is usually helped if the market is turning and in this case USD/JPY remains on a downward trajectory.

Although the BoJ Governor Shirakawa said that the action should “contribute to a stable foreign exchange-rate formation” it is far from clear that the BoJ favoured FX intervention. Indeed, the view from the BoJ is that the move in USD/JPY is related less to Japanese fundamentals but more to US problems.

Now that the door is open, further intervention is likely over coming days and weeks but for it to be effective it will require 1) doubts about US growth to recede, 2) speculation of Fed QE 2 to dissipate, 3) and consequently interest rate differentials, in particular bond yields between the US and Japan to widen in favour of the USD. This is unlikely to happen quickly, especially given continued speculation of further US quantitative easing. A final prerequisite to a higher USD/JPY which is related to the easing of some of the above concerns is for there to be an improvement in risk appetite as any increase in risk aversion continues to result in JPY buying.

When viewed from the perspective of Asian currencies the Japanese intervention has put Japan in line with other Asian central banks which have been intervening to weaken their currencies. However, Asian central bank intervention has merely slowed the appreciation in regional currencies, and Japan may have to be satisfied with a similar result. Japan’s intervention may however, give impetus to Asian central banks to intervene more aggressively but the result will be the same, i.e. slowing rather then stemming appreciation.

As for the JPY a further strengthening, with a move to around 80.00 is likely by year end despite the more aggressive intervention stance. Over the short term there will at least be much greater two-way risk, which will keep market nervous, especially if as is likely Japan follows up with further interventions. USD/JPY could test resistance around 85.23, and then 85.92 soon but eventually markets may call Japan’s bluff and the intervention may just end up putting a red flag in front of currency markets to challenge.

Published on Wed, Sep 15 2010, 08:54 GMT